The fall-out continues after the poor opening last weekend of The Lone Ranger and the reading of the tea leaves hits overdrive. The LA Times suggests that Disney, facing a possible write down of anywhere between $100-190M for the movie, may do this:
Disney’s failure is likely to reinforce its resolve to double down on less risky sequels and lower its spending on original live-action films.
“They will think not twice, but maybe five times, before they do another $225-million picture,” said longtime entertainment industry analyst Harold Vogel of Vogel Capital Management. “This is going to make it a lot tougher for any other budding auteur to come in and say, ‘I want to do this $225-million extravaganza.’ It’s not going to happen any time soon at Disney.”
So nearly impossible for a John Carter or Lone Ranger $200M+ project, combined with going with “less risky sequels” and lowering its spending on “original live-action films.”
That’s one approach. Then there’s Universal. Last year they had their own come to Jesus experience with the big budget bust Battleship. In fact Indiewire does a nice job summarizing how that studio handled a similar financial setback:
Universal, after suffering a predictable setback with Hasbro’s “Battleship” last summer, may have learned some valuable lessons. (Co-Chairman Adam) Fogelson has adopted a different approach from the other studios because he has not inherited multiple franchises to rely on.
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Their string of modest hits, as marketing exec Michael Moses pointed out in a tweet, include fairy tale actioner “Snow White and the Huntsman,” which should yield a sequel, Mark Wahlberg comedy raunchfest “Ted,” Tony Gilroy’s “Bourne” reboot with Jeremy Renner, Anna Kendrick musical “Pitch,” Judd Apatow’s family comedy “This Is 40,” Working Title’s Oscar bait musical “Les Miserables,” horror flick “Mama,” starring Jessica Chastain, Melissa McCarthy comedy “Identity Thief,” sci-fi Tom Cruise vehicle “Oblivion,” “Fast and Furious 6,” Jason Blum horror flick “The Purge,” starring Ethan Hawke, and now the blockbuster of the bunch, “DM2.”
All were produced on reasonable budgets, even “Les Mis.”
Let’s go through the list of Universal movies released after Battleship:
The Bourne Legacy: Reboot, existing franchise.
Despicable Me 2: Sequel, existing franchise.
Fast and Furious 6: Sequel, existing franchise.
Identity Thief: Original material.
Les Miserables: Remake, existing material.
Mama: Original material.
Oblivion: Original material.
Perfect Pitch: Original material.
The Purge: Original material.
Savages: Adaptation novel, original material.
Snow White and the Huntman: Original material based on a spec script.
Ted: Original material.
This is 40: Original material.
Correct me if I’m wrong, but there’s a lot of original material on that list.
Universal has 10 movies that can be tracked in 2013, tied with Sony/Columbia for the least amount of releases this year by a major studio, but more than double Sony’s revenues, and just behind #1 Buena Vista (Disney) with one less movie.
And most of Universals movies are originals.
So apparently even in this hugely competitive entertainment marketplace, steeped with an obsession for pre-existing, pre-branded, pre-awareness content, Universal’s track record since Battleship suggests a studio can survive blending original movies with franchise projects.
What will Disney do? Or for that matter Sony and Warner Bros., the latter having management issues, the former having a poor summer at the box office?
Play it safe: More sequels, less originals?
Or play it smart: More originals, reasonably budgeted?
For the LAT article, go here.
For the Indiewire article, go here.
One thing is for sure: All eyes are on Pacific Rim this weekend, a big budget original movie from Warner Bros.